Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Ralph Haygood's avatar

"In fact, the left appears to be so successfully engaged in matters related to AI that one can't help but wonder if allegations about its supposed ignorance of the technology are motivated by a desire to change the very terms of the debate.": Given the source - "Dan Kagan-Kans in the effective altruist AI newsletter Transformer" - I assumed that was the motivation even before reading further. Why would any decently informed person expect good-faith arguments from Sam Bankman-Fried's crowd?

"... the famous stochastic parrots paper posited that AI is not really intelligent, it's a next-token prediction machine. 'The left' has metabolized this conception of AI, and uses it as an excuse to write off AI's import, which is growing by the day." In other words, Kagan-Kans is stupid, dishonest, or both. (No, I'm not going to be nice about this. It's long past time for that.)

In the first place, there is no, repeat *no* reasonable doubt that what currently passes for AI isn't intelligent as most people understand that admittedly nebulous term. Here's Rusty Foster on the subject two days ago:

"I've watched all three of my children learn what a cat is, and in each case the number of pictures of a cat they needed to see was not 'all of them.' It was like, two or three? Half a dozen, tops. I helped them learn to speak and read fluently, and the number of Reddit posts required was not 'every Reddit post.' I don't need to know what mechanism underlies human intelligence to rule out the possibility that it's the same as what a large language model does. The whole trick underlying the apparent magic of modern A.I. is simply giving it tons of data. Give it the whole internet. Give it every book ever written. This is required - it does not work with less training data ..."*

(https://www.todayintabs.com/p/a-i-isn-t-people)

Moreover, this assessment and then some is widely shared by many people who have credible credentials to know what they're talking about. See, for example, a piece I've cited here before:

"Artificial intelligence (AI) systems with human-level reasoning are unlikely to be achieved through the approach and technology that have dominated the current boom in AI, according to a survey of hundreds of people working in the field. More than three-quarters of respondents said that enlarging current AI systems - an approach that has been hugely successful in enhancing their performance over the past few years - is unlikely to lead to what is known as artificial general intelligence (AGI). An even higher proportion said that neural networks, the fundamental technology behind generative AI, alone probably cannot match or surpass human intelligence."**

(https://web.archive.org/web/20250305233251/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-00649-4)

It's high time for relentless jeering at fools like Kagan-Kans who refuse to acknowledge reality. What they're engaging in is cargo-cult futurism in the service of profiting from intellectual property theft, and it should be called out as such every time they spout it.

In the second place, rejecting the asinine and offensive claim that what currently passes for AI is intelligent absolutely doesn't imply writing off the social ramifications of the embrace of "AI" by greedy and vicious members of the boss class, as this post (Merchant's) amply demonstrates.

"not just consider the core technology, which at this point is nearly impossible to assess apart from its owners and developers.": It never is; technology is never just technique.

I learned this early, because I was educated as a physicist. (I have degrees in the subject from Irvine, Santa Barbara, and Cambridge.) During the second half of the 20th century, nuclear weapons cast a long shadow over physics. (One of my instructors and research supervisors, Fred Reines, was a veteran of Los Alamos.) I came of intellectual age knowing about what was done to Robert Oppenheimer, and I saw the even-then appalling quality of the people to whom Oppenheimer et al. in the USA and Andrei Sakharov et al. in the USSR gave those weapons. Recently, the quality of those people in the USA has plummeted to a new low.

Motives and character matter. As Foster remarked of "AI", "[T]he evil is not the technology - it's the dreams of the people trying to sell it to us." And of the people eagerly buying it, for whom other people are just things to be used and discarded.

*As Foster noted, a basic LLM can be created with 200 lines of Python. That isn't hyperbole. See also Sebastian Raschka's book "Build a large language model (from scratch)". The differences between that Python and the logic underlying ChatGPT, Claude, or Gemini are just scale, user interface, and gargantuan quantities of (mostly stolen) training data and (grossly underpaid) "reinforcement learning from human feedback".

**If you're wondering what might lie beyond neural networks (without even getting into how drastically simplified the elements of "AI" are compared to organic neurons), see, for example:

"Once thought to support neurons, astrocytes turn out to be in charge"

(https://www.quantamagazine.org/once-thought-to-support-neurons-astrocytes-turn-out-to-be-in-charge-20260130/)

Mary Wildfire's avatar

I wonder a bit about the accuracy of "the left" label. If we're winning, I think it's because plenty on the right have concerns about some of the same things: they care less about environmental issues, but they do care about electric bills going up, or potential water scarcity; they're horrified by chatbots that encourage teen suicide or offer sexualized content to kids; and I think they sometimes are offended by the way data centers are shoved into communities, or AI is shoved on them at work--they might not have minded this sort of undemocratic decision-making when the objections were all about the environment and what they saw were jobs. It seems to me that what's happening is the industry is trying desperately to get these things built ASAP but the public is finding out about the downside faster than they expected--we haven't all lost touch with reality yet!

24 more comments...

No posts

Ready for more?